Bitcoin (BTC) is inches away from all-time highs after it seals another record weekly close.
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Bitcoin traders are eyeing both a return to price discovery and a “false move” to take liquidity at $105,000.
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The weekly close sealed July as a month for the record books, with “final resistance” now next on bulls’ to-do list.
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US trade tariffs are the macro talking point of the week, while dollar weakness continues to fuel risk-asset relief.
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Bitcoin funding rates are declining while price rises, setting up a potential short squeeze.
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Investor greed is rising, with the Fear & Greed Index in “extreme” territory despite macro risks.
Bitcoin liquidity targets include $105,000 dip
After a late-week bout of weakness thanks to long-dormant BTC wallets reactivating after 14 years, Bitcoin is back on form as the week begins.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows price action focusing on the $109,000 mark as Wall Street returns.
Having flipped the key $108,000 level to support, BTC/USD is increasingly giving traders cause to believe that new all-time highs are around the corner.
Holding the highs. Just waiting now for the ATH push .. pic.twitter.com/JRyhA4XEOv
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 7, 2025
Feel it in my flippers that we see $BTC at ath this week
The market, especially ETH and BTC both have a lot of tailwinds so far (barring anything unexpected) pic.twitter.com/oYUcDdxsiv
— 🐧 Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) July 6, 2025
“$BTC Sets its high or low of the month within its first 12 days over 80% of the time,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted in part of his latest analysis on X.
“It then usually proceeds to trend in the other direction for a sizeable 20%+ move from that high or low.”
Trading resource Material Indicators notes that a return to price discovery is currently being blocked by a band of ask liquidity at $110,000.
Monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms $110,000 as the key level to break through to the upside, while bid support is lining up at $107,800.
“When price consolidates, liquidation targets are vey powerful. They tend to act as price magnets,” fellow trader CrypNuevo continued in an X thread on July 6.
CrypNuevo unearthed another liquidation target near $105,000, making a trip there a likelihood thanks to that level coinciding with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
“The main individual liquidation level is at $105.2k. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a false move to this zone first, confluence with the 1D50EMA,” he explained, describing such a low as a “good entry point.”
Weekly close keeps the records coming
After some last-minute gains on the back of US macroeconomic headlines, Bitcoin achieved another record weekly close on July 6.
At around $109,240 on Bitstamp, the close saw BTC/USD build on a previous rebound, which erased an entire week’s downside.
The pair is thus up by 1.8% in the first week of July, adding to 2.8% gains from the month prior.
Reacting, some crypto market participants were highly optimistic, with popular commentator Matthew Hyland arguing that bulls were now “in control.”
#BTC completes highest weekly candle close ever
Bulls are in control pic.twitter.com/Og4YzCFiQm
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) July 7, 2025
In separate X analysis, Hyland concluded that he “has to favor a continuation to all time highs here in July.”
Prior to the event, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that a new record close would be “truly pivotal.”
“Bitcoin has done it,” he subsequently confirmed.
“Bitcoin has just about Weekly Closed above the final major Weekly resistance (red), registering its highest ever Weekly Close. The goal for Bitcoin now is to turn this final resistance into support to springboard price to new All time Highs.”
Tariff talk returns with risk assets riding high
Fed interest-rate watchers will gain further insight into recent decisions to hold rates at current levels as the minutes of its June meeting are released this week.
In what is a broadly quiet week for US macroeconomic data, attention remains focused on Fed policy, which has diverged significantly from government demands.
US President Donald Trump in particular has remained vocal about cutting rates to as little as 1% from the current 4.25%, leveling personal criticism at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Renewed buzz around US international trade tariffs at the weekend underscores the Trump-Fed divergence. At the June rates meeting and elsewhere, Powell repeatedly linked tariffs to inflationary pressures.
Now, with the deadline for reciprocal tariffs pushed to Aug. 1 from July 9, markets have only brief respite from the issue.
“Markets have been pricing this in for weeks,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter argued in part of recent X analysis, noting that a large number of countries had not reached out to the US to negotiate a trade deal.
In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading firm Mosaic Asset meanwhile linked strong risk-asset performance in the face of inflation uncertainty to dollar weakness.
“Another catalyst behind the risk-on move in the stock market is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),” it told readers about the risk-asset “tailwind.”
“The dollar has fallen by over 10% this year, which makes 2025 the worst start for DXY since 1973.”
The week’s other key events include initial jobless claims and speaking appearances from senior Fed officials, among which is a speech on its balance sheet from Christopher Waller at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, on July 10.
Funding rates buck BTC price trend
Bitcoin’s record weekly close is being met with some familiar skepticism by some traders — and potentially setting up another uptick as a result.
Fresh commentary from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant notes that funding rates are declining as BTC price action improves.
“As BTC enters a bullish trend, the declining funding rates indicate that Binance users are increasingly opening short positions. In other words, many traders are not buying into the rally and are instead betting against it,” contributor BorisVest wrote in a “Quicktake” blog post on July 6.
“This mismatch between price direction and market sentiment often leads to forced short liquidations or margin top-ups, adding fuel to the upward move.”
Mass liquidations of short BTC positions, as Cointelegraph reported, have characterized the market in recent months as BTC/USD hunts liquidity on either side of the order book.
“Short positions on Binance futures are increasing, signaling that many traders perceive the current rally as an opportunity to sell,” BorisVest acknowledged.
Last week, Cointelegraph noted that history has produced significant price upside as a result of negative funding rates.
Investor “greed” creeps back to extremes
Bitcoin at all-time highs mirrors exuberant US stocks — but the macro climate could hardly be more uncertain.
Related: Bitcoin ‘cup and handle’ breakout gives $230K target as SOL eyes 2800% gain
The growing gap between market mood and economic reality is highlighted in sentiment indices for both TradFi and crypto.
According to the latest data from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, TradFi investors are currently in a state of “extreme greed” despite tariff woes, inflation risks and geopolitical tensions.
The index measured 78/100 at the time of writing on July 7.
“Investor sentiment and positioning reached extremely bearish levels during the April lows in the stock market. That was a key catalyst in driving a bottom and reversal higher in the stock market,” Mosaic Asset wrote on the phenomenon.
“Sentiment has been slow to shift back in the other direction despite the S&P 500’s recovery to fresh record highs. That’s now starting to change based on several measures of investor fear and greed.”
The Index’s crypto equivalent shows a similar trend, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 73/100, its highest since late May and up 6 points in 24 hours.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
