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London/Hong Kong/New YorkCNN —
Oil prices fell sharply Tuesday, returning to levels last seen before the Iran-Israel conflict, as investors cheered news of a ceasefire, albeit fragile, between the two countries.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 6.1% to $67.14 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude, the US oil benchmark, fell 6% to $64.37 a barrel.
These levels are broadly comparable to the closing prices in the days before Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13.
That assault triggered a 12-day conflict that has led both sides to fire a barrage of missiles into the other’s territory, as well as direct military involvement by Israel’s biggest ally, the United States.
Related videoCNN’s Erin Burnett reports from near the Strait of Hormuz about Israel-Iran ceasefire
President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire late Monday, though hours later Israel accused Iran of violating the terms. Iran denied the allegations. Trump on Tuesday morning flashed intense anger as the ceasefire seemed to grow fragile. The ceasefire appeared to hold as of Tuesday afternoon.
US stocks closed in the green. The Dow closed higher by 507 points, or 1.19%. The S&P 500 gained 1.11%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.43%.
The S&P 500 was less than 1% away from an all-time high. The Nasdaq was 1.3% away from an all-time high.
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, was down 12%, signaling relative calm in markets.
In Asia, stock indexes closed the day higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng finished up 2% and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was 1.2% higher on the day.
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Meanwhile, in Europe, the benchmark STOXX Europe 600 index, which includes UK-listed companies, closed higher by 1.11%.
“There could be hiccups along the way, but the market is saying this (conflict) is likely over,” Robert Yawger, commodities specialist at Mizuho Securities, told CNN Tuesday.
“Markets breathed a sigh of relief following Trump’s ceasefire declaration, but the celebration could be short-lived,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, in a note to investors. “If tensions flare again or the ceasefire is violated, we could see a swift return to risk aversion — boosting safe havens like gold and pressuring global equities.”
Relief over oil supplies
The ceasefire makes it less likely that global oil supplies will be disrupted. Many investors have been worried that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway ferrying around a quarter of the world’s oil supply, according to figures from the International Energy Agency.
That scenario — which would likely send oil prices skyward — now appears less of a threat.
Related articleHigh tariffs give Trump less room for error in Iran
Goldman Sachs has estimated that oil prices could blow past $100 a barrel if there is an “extended disruption” to the strait.
Assuming the ceasefire holds, Brent crude could hover “near the $70 per barrel level while clarity on a US-Iran deal emerges,” said Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy.
“The prospect of severe economic fallout from a potential blockade (of the strait) likely motivated both sides to agree to the ceasefire, if it is indeed genuine,” he wrote in a note.
While oil prices shot up after the Iran-Israel conflict began, touching a five-month high last week, they tanked Monday after Iran launched targeted and limited missile strikes on US bases in Qatar.
US crude tumbled 7.2% to settle at $68.51 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since early April and one of its worst days over the past three years. Brent closed at $71.48 a barrel, down 7.2%, the steepest decline since August 2022.
